As the U.S. presidential election nears, Bitcoin is on a rollercoaster, teetering at around $69,000 with market expectations of extreme volatility. Traders and analysts alike are eyeing substantial price swings, potentially up to 10%, depending on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris secures the win on November 5. As the crypto market aligns with the political landscape, the election’s impact on Bitcoin (BTC) could reshape the short-term outlook for digital assets.
Trump vs. Harris: How Election Outcomes Could Impact BTC
Historically, Trump has been seen as crypto-friendly, advocating for the U.S. to become a global leader in the crypto space. His promises include reshaping crypto regulations, specifically targeting Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler’s policies, and positioning the U.S. as the “world capital of crypto.” On the other hand, Harris’s stance supports a cautious regulatory framework designed to address innovation while aiming to balance consumer protections.
According to the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, Trump’s election odds have recently fluctuated. After peaking at 67% in late October, his odds dipped to 56% as Harris gained traction. This shift coincided with a brief BTC dip below $69,000, triggering nearly $350 million in crypto liquidations. These swings reflect the market’s heightened sensitivity to election outcomes, with traders betting on large movements should Trump or Harris win.
Could Bitcoin Reach $80K Post-Election?
With Bitcoin currently trading around $69,000, analysts predict that a Trump win could act as a bullish catalyst, potentially driving BTC to a record high of $80,000 or beyond. BTC’s near-record price of $73,300 on October 29 hints at bullish sentiment, as investors look toward election-driven momentum and increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Data shows significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reporting $642.9 million in recent inflows, the highest since March, further bolstering confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Tony Sycamore, an analyst with IG Markets, believes a clear breakout above $74,000 could solidify an uptrend, propelling BTC toward new highs. “The market is optimistic heading into the election, and a rally to $80,000 isn’t out of reach if BTC maintains its momentum,” Sycamore noted in a recent investment note. However, caution lingers; a dip below $65,000 could disrupt the uptrend, potentially returning BTC to its multi-month range.
Volatility and Liquidations Signal Market Jitters
In the wake of Trump’s odds declining on Polymarket, Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000, resulting in $349.8 million in liquidations, with $259.7 million stemming from long positions. This marked the highest liquidation day since October 25, underscoring the fragile sentiment as the election looms. Crypto traders are now bracing for volatility as the market anticipates a decisive post-election reaction.
According to crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin could see “at least a 10% move in either direction” depending on the election outcome, indicating that the November 5 election could mark a turning point. BTC’s current weekly close is not “the cleanest,” as he points out, signaling that the coin’s trajectory remains open to influence by short-term events.
Rate Cuts, Regulatory Changes, and a New Crypto Chapter?
Beyond the election, market participants anticipate continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could further fuel Bitcoin’s bullish run. Following a recent 50-basis-point cut, expectations are high for additional easing that would make alternative investments more appealing, potentially benefiting the crypto market.
Analysts are optimistic, with some predicting BTC could reach as high as $100,000 under favorable conditions, especially if Trump’s win paves the way for more lenient crypto regulations. However, a Harris win may prompt conservative measures that could slow Bitcoin’s upward movement, according to a report from Bernstein analysts.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With election day just around the corner, Bitcoin is poised at a critical juncture. Whether it’s a surge to $80,000 or a potential dip below $65,000, the crypto market is on high alert, aligning its moves closely with political shifts. As uncertainty continues, traders are positioning for a dramatic post-election phase, anticipating that the results could set Bitcoin’s course for the remainder of 2024.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other form of advice.